Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.153547 0.181849 0.215097 0.257357 0.310090 0.374315 4.593690e-01
2025-08-10 0.114394 0.147190 0.189887 0.250598 0.336448 0.456250 6.411339e-01
2025-08-17 0.086310 0.118739 0.164676 0.236540 0.350056 0.529681 8.513711e-01
2025-08-24 0.070501 0.103170 0.153262 0.239227 0.390983 0.664904 1.243075e+00
2025-08-31 0.058436 0.090356 0.142940 0.241322 0.434707 0.833333 1.836058e+00
2025-09-07 0.049539 0.080561 0.135189 0.246197 0.488880 1.062662 2.812539e+00
2025-09-14 0.042476 0.072304 0.128142 0.250805 0.548269 1.357084 4.399318e+00
2025-09-21 0.035866 0.063435 0.117795 0.245580 0.585681 1.639768 6.532896e+00
2025-09-28 0.028456 0.051583 0.098747 0.214699 0.543393 1.660222 7.724992e+00
2025-10-05 0.025257 0.047398 0.094768 0.219026 0.605819 2.119865 1.276328e+01
2025-10-12 0.023012 0.044714 0.093457 0.230215 0.700732 2.859342 2.370341e+01
2025-10-19 0.020868 0.041820 0.090979 0.237680 0.792524 3.773148 4.464543e+01
2025-10-26 0.018801 0.038826 0.087867 0.243547 0.892830 5.033980 9.237295e+01
2025-11-02 0.016620 0.035161 0.082173 0.239233 0.951066 6.245014 1.795201e+02
2025-11-09 0.014515 0.031302 0.075069 0.227485 0.967804 7.261910 3.256998e+02
2025-11-16 0.013237 0.029245 0.072481 0.231338 1.076977 9.736835 9.029571e+02
2025-11-23 0.012104 0.027347 0.069901 0.234423 1.192357 13.091122 3.101161e+03
2025-11-30 0.011176 0.025817 0.068059 0.240032 1.339533 18.263068 1.739845e+04
2025-12-07 0.010349 0.024408 0.066251 0.245258 1.500585 25.737123 2.335514e+05
2025-12-14 0.009425 0.022578 0.062658 0.240778 1.584299 32.957040 1.114037e+07
2025-12-21 0.008141 0.019561 0.054519 0.211038 1.408767 30.487699 3.782064e+07
2025-12-28 0.007627 0.018654 0.053332 0.215629 1.570909 43.650506 NaN
2026-01-04 0.007269 0.018136 0.053373 0.226915 1.834220 70.330117 NaN